15.5.2.1 Exponential doubling of computing speeds will continue through 2030
The age of Moore’s Law – exponentially increasing transistor density in integrated circuits achieved by reductions in transistor size – will soon come to an end due to the underlying physics. However, based on the technologies described in Section 15.4, such as 3-D chip stacking and hybrid photonic/electronic components, I think it is a safe bet that exponential doubling of computing speeds and memory capacity for a fixed dollar will continue roughly at the rate of once every two years through at least 2030.
Thus, in 2030 your smart phone – or whatever smart device(s) are popular at the time – should be 100 to 200 times more powerful than the phone you carry in your pocket today. Some of the ways we will used this increased computing capacity are explored below.