15.5.2 Near-term predictions (next 10 to 15 years – before 2030)
In this section a number of technologies the author expects to become commonplace within the next 10 to 15 years – say by the year 2030 – are discussed. Before wowing you with the innovations we can expect to see, I’d like to take a moment to mention a few common sci-fi concepts that I don’t believe will become reality by 2030.
First and foremost, while Santa may bring you more sophisticated, special purpose, Roomba-like robots over the next decade and a half, don’t expect a general purpose household robot by 2030. By general purpose I mean a robot capable of doing typical household chores – cooking meals, doing the laundry, or loading the dishwasher and putting the dishes away afterward. While we are making progress in robotics, the problems are just far too deep for household robots to be anything more than expensive toys within the next 15 years. Sorry.
Next up, put away those notions of fully immersive virtual reality (VR) games that you ‘plug in to’ – PlayStation 5 and 6 won’t come with that option. The kind of brain / computer interface necessary for that type of VR is simply too far away.
Finally, don’t expect to be having meaningful unscripted conversations with NPC’s (Non Player Characters) in your video games over the next 15 years. Artificial Intelligence systems capable of human-level dialog won’t exist on your smart devices and game machines in this time period. As with robotics and VR the challenges are just too great to expect that degree of progress in only 15 years. That is not to say that NPC’s won’t become more sophisticated in their actions. I expect games will adopt advanced versions of systems like Skyrim’s “Radiant AI” in order to enable NPC’s to be somewhat more independent and lifelike in their actions.