15.5.3.2 Fully immersive virtual reality will appear.
Fully immersive virtual reality, indistinguishable from ‘real’ reality, will happen, but beyond the 2030 timeframe.
To date, military and civilian aircraft simulators used to train pilots are the closest we’ve come to implementing a true VR environment. These systems succeed because the pilot is sitting in a physical cockpit that is identical to the one in the actual aircraft. The computer system only has to simulate the view visible through the airplane’s windows. Because the windows in the plane provide a relatively small viewing angle and the viewable objects are far away, the simulation can appear to be reasonably realistic. Advanced simulators are placed on gimbals that can change the orientation of the simulator under computer control to provide the physical sensation of nose up and nose down, or shake the simulator to mimic turbulence. Doing so further adds to the sense of immersion.
In section 15.5.2.5 we covered existing and near-term VR systems consisting of head mounted stereoscopic display devices and some kind of device to allow a person to ‘walk in place’. These systems may be augmented with a data glove that provides haptic (tactile / touch) feedback. Regardless, these approaches to VR simply are not adequate to produce truly immersive experiences.
How does one reproduce the sensation of strolling about a forest? Say the user decides to reach down, pick up a stick, and throw it. What kind of I/O device could provide the realistic tactile feedback required for such an action? Surely, a data glove falls far short. What if the user decides to take a dip in the river that flows through the forest? Ultimately all of these questions reduce to “how does one build a Star Trek-type holodeck using real technology?”
I believe that truly immersive VR will require a brain computer interface of some sort. Specifically what I have in mind are five small devices – two attached to (or cutting across) the optic nerves, one for each ear, and one implanted at the base of the skull that attaches to (or cuts across) the spinal cord. Normally these devices would act in a passive manner, simply relaying signals from our eyes, ears, and limbs to our brain – for all intents and purposes if would be as if the devices weren’t even there. In active mode however, these devices would take inputs from a simulated world and pass those inputs to the brain. They would also transmit the outputs from the brain to the simulation.
From the point of view of the outside world, the user would be immobile while in a simulation – probably lying safely in bed. From the user’s point of view he or she would be completely immersed in a virtual world – it would look, sound, and feel completely real. You’d be able to run, jump, swim, etc. The only limitations would be that smell and taste would be missing and you wouldn’t have sensation (from the simulated world) in your face, since those nerve signals don’t pass through the optic nerves or spinal cord. These issues could be addressed with somewhat more invasive implants.
It is fun to speculate how this technology would be used. Personally, I think it will prove especially popular with the 80 year old plus crowd. Even as their physical bodies fail them, they could still be enjoying ski vacations in Aspen and scuba diving along the Great Barrier Reef. And what 80 year old wouldn’t want to look, as well as feel, 30 again?
Various psychological conditions may arise where individuals become convinced that the “real” world is ‘just another level’ in some simulation. I can even foresee some rather unique legal defenses – perhaps where a man accused of violently murdering his boss pleads for manslaughter rather than first degree murder because he became confused as to reality verses simulation and he always murders his boss on the weekends in virtual reality as a harmless way of letting off steam – which is what he thought he was doing when he committed the actual murder.
While the technical and physical issues to implementing truly immersive VR are formidable, there is another set of problems that people have barely begun to even recognize, much less actually solve. A great deal of attention has been devoted to the concept of “playing” in VR environments, but much less has been paid to how people will “work” in such environments.
As a thought experiment, I can imagine writing a future version of this text using advanced VR to simulate a grand Victorian library where I sit at a massive oak desk in an oversized stuffed leather chair, typing away on a realistically rendered manual typewriter using paper that feels real to the touch, where mistakes must be erased by hand using an accurately simulated rubber eraser. While such a setting would be cool, obviously I’d be far less productive in such an environment than I am typing away on my laptop. What we’d like however is for VR to make us more productive, not less.
In order to work effectively, we will need to figure out how abstract concepts can be most effectively represented in virtual worlds. How will people retrieve, modify, and store information in a VR system? How will they solve problems? How will they conduct business transactions? In other words, what kind of simulation will provide an appropriate interface to a world of abstract concepts? Presently, no one knows. But this topic is sure to be fertile ground for research for years to come.